National home prices moved lower in April, marking a turning point in the housing cycle.
Key findings:
Momentum has clearly slowed, marking a transition from broad-based growth to a more uneven, multi-speed phase.
Nearly half of SA4 regions recorded price declines in April, highlighting a clear and broad-based loss of momentum across the housing market.
Rate-sensitive inner-city markets are leading the shift, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, where price declines have emerged after back-to-back interest rate rises.
In contrast, more affordable markets, particularly across parts of Perth, Adelaide and regional areas continue to record strong annual growth.
However, even in these markets, short term growth momentum is beginning to ease, indicating that the slowdown is becoming more widespread.
The decline in prices is being overwhelmingly driven by New South Wales and Victoria, which account for the majority of all falling SA4 regions, but parts of inner Brisbane, Adelaide's Central & Hills and West Regions and Perth north are also seeing home prices fall.
Overall, the housing market is rebalancing as demand softens and growth momentum eases.
Auction clearance rates have softened, pointing to a growing mismatch between buyer and seller expectations.
At the same time, higher interest rates are reducing borrowing capacity, while uncertainty is weighing on confidence.
While price growth is expected to slow, a large correction remains unlikely.
Strong equity buffers, a resilient labour market and limited forced selling are helping to stabilise conditions and cushion price falls.
Population growth and ongoing supply constraints exacerbated by higher construction costs and elevated interest rates continue to place a floor under prices.
The adjustment is expected to be gradual, but slower growth and further price declines are likely.